It was eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
